According to future climate predictions, it is noted that many regions in the Middle East and Africa will be exposed to an increase in the rate of drought and desertification, and this will have devastating consequences. Also, if the increase in global temperature continues at the current pace, it is inevitable that in the future it is expected that these regions will witness the following:

  1. A decrease in the proportion of agricultural land and the extension of the desertification area.
  2. Change in food production.
  3. Increasing the intensity of conflicts due to water scarcity.
  4. The increase in the volume and pace of climate migration.

For example, it can be said that the current conflict and war in Syria, (which was the long-term drought and water scarcity in rural areas among the main indirect causes of it), represents a very dangerous warning of what will happen in the future in terms of the impact of the climate issue on the stability of countries in the Mediterranean region (as the refugee crisis in Europe in 2015). This requires the design of long-term strategies to enhance the concept of non-classical security.

Also, the possibility of environmental migration within Europe must be taken into account. For example: in 2018 spring/summer, drought conditions in central and northern Europe caused yield reductions up to 50% for the main crops. Hence there is an urgent need to scientifically improve risk and impact assessment, the shocks they can cause and thus design new adaptation strategies to cope with them .
Therefore, this new format of challenges, which are way more complex than originally believed can no longer be neglected, that will pose a real threat to political stability.

In this regard, it may be necessary to develop strategic plans for how to deal with the serious climate consequences, especially those that indicate that part of the Middle East and North Africa will become uninhabitable by 2050. Thus increase the risk and burden of environmental asylum in an area with a population of more than 500 million. Hence, that will automatically result in eventually doubling the magnitude of turbulence related to security policies .

Accordingly, conflicts and terrorism are no longer the main threats to stability. The environment, climate change( and the attendant problematic at the level of water poverty) have become an integral part of the non-classical concept of security at all political, economic and cultural levels.

Thus, this requires studying the environmental issue with a careful political and moral responsibility to reach radical and proactive solutions, in order to be able to understand the evolution of the structure of the climate change regime and study the accompanying political context. And thus working to find a new form of coordination and increase cooperation between the actors in Europe and the Mediterranean countries at the level of creating new forms of legal, political and technological cooperation.


Dr. Salam Al Rabad


Poster Session 3 (Nexus), Room 2 - 28th September, 15:45-16:45



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